Tue, 07 Feb 2023

Saints at Bucs on MNF: Preview, Prop Picks, Prediction

Field Level Media
06 Dec 2022, 05:40 GMT+10

The New Orleans Saints have one more victory this season than the Chicago Bears, who were eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday.

Yet, the Saints (4-8) enter Monday night's game at Tampa Bay just 1 1/2 games behind the Bucs (5-6) in the "race" for the NFC South title.

Top five draft pickor host a playoff game? Both are still in play.

The Bucs are 3.0-point favorites at BetMGM and BetRivers while the spread at DraftKings is 3.5.

The action has been split at BetMGM, with Tampa Bay backed by 67 percent of the spread-line bets but only 45 percent of the money. The action has been much more lopsided at BetRivers, where the Bucs have drawn 67 and 70 percent, respectively.

The slightly larger spread at DraftKings hasn't deterred the public from backing the Bucs, who have been supported by 67 percent of the total bets and 56 percent of the money.

PROP PICKS

Saints WR Jarvis Landry Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM): This has been the most popular prop bet at the sportsbook. The ninth-year receiver opened the season with seven receptions for 114 yards but has not reached 40 yards in a game since. Landry did miss five games but has not been one of Andy Dalton's preferred options in three games since returning, totaling eight catches on 14 targets for 90 yards. Tampa Bay enters with the league's fifth-ranked pass defense.

Under 41.0 Total Points (-110): The market has shifted slightly from 40.5 points at all three sportsbooks. The Saints are coming off a 13-0 loss to San Francisco and managed only one touchdown in a 20-10 home loss to the Bucs in Week 3. Tampa Bay is averaging just 16.9 points over its past seven games -- a stretch that has included only two opponents with winning records. The last time these teams met in Tampa, New Orleans walked away with a 9-0 victory last December.

Saints DL Cameron Jordan Over 0.75 Sacks (160 at DraftKings): New Orleans got to Bucs QB Tom Brady just once in the first meeting, but Tampa Bay will be without star left tackle Tristan Wirfs for the rematch. Jordan is second on the Saints with 5.5 sacks, although he has registered more than a half-sack only three times in 11 games. The 33-year-old has a nonstop motor deep into the season -- Jordan closed last year with 8.5 sacks in his final four games, including a pair of sacks against Brady in that Week 14 win.

INJURY REPORT

Saints: Defensive back J.T. Gray (hamstring), tight end Juwan Johnson (ankle), defensive end Payton Turner (ankle) and safety P.J. Williams (knee) are out. The team is hopeful that cornerback Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) will be able to return after missing seven games. He is questionable along with linebacker Pete Werner (ankle), defensive tackle Malcolm Roach (illness), cornerback Bradley Roby (concussion), defensive end Kentavius Street (illness) and wide receiver Kevin White (illness).

Bucs: Along with Wirfs being out, safeties Mike Edwards (hamstring) and Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle) are doubtful. The lengthy injury report on Saturday also listed a half dozen players as questionable: tight end Cameron Brate (illness), wide receiver Russell Gage (hamstring), guard Luke Goedeke (foot), running back Leonard Fournette (hip), nose tackle Vita Vea (foot) and defensive end Akiem Hicks (foot).

PREDICTION

The past two matchups have been defensive dogfights and this one doesn't shape up to be any different. The loss of Wirfs is a major blow to the Bucs, but the Saints enter with an even deeper list of impactful injuries and New Orleans' offense has continued to unravel over the past month. -- Bucs 23-16

--Field Level Media

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